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The China Study II: Wheat’s total effect on mortality is significant, complex, and highlights the negative effects of low animal fat diets

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The graph below shows the results of a multivariate nonlinear WarpPLS ( ) analysis including the variables listed below. Each row in the dataset refers to a county in China, from the publicly available China Study II dataset ( ). As always, I thank Dr. Campbell and his collaborators for making the data publicly available. Other analyses based on the same dataset are also available ( ).     - Wheat: wheat flour consumption in g/d.     - Aprot: animal protein consumption in g/d.     - PProt: plant protein consumption in g/d.     - %FatCal: percentage of calories coming from fat.     - Mor35_69: number of deaths per 1,000 people in the 35-69 age range.     - Mor70_79: number of deaths per 1,000 people in the 70-79 age range. Below are the total effects of wheat flour consumption, along with the number of paths used to calculate them, and the respective P values (i.e., probabilities that the effects are due to chance). Total effect...

The China Study II: How gender takes us to the elusive and deadly factor X

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The graph below shows the mortality in the 35-69 and 70-79 age ranges for men and women for the China Study II dataset. I discussed other results in my two previous posts ( ) ( ), all taking us to this post. The full data for the China Study II study is publicly available ( ). The mortality numbers are actually averages of male and female deaths by 1,000 people in each of several counties, in each of the two age ranges. Men do tend to die earlier than women, but the difference above is too large. Generally speaking, when you look at a set time period that is long enough for a good number of deaths (not to be confused with “a number of good deaths”) to be observed, you tend to see around 5-10 percent more deaths among men than among women. This is when other variables are controlled for, or when men and women do not adopt dramatically different diets and lifestyles. One of many examples is a study in Finland ( ); you have to go beyond the abstract on this one. As you can see from the gr...

The China Study II: Gender, mortality, and the mysterious factor X

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WarpPLS  and HealthCorrelator for Excel were used to do the analyses below. For other China Study analyses, many using WarpPLS as well as HealthCorrelator for Excel, click here . For the dataset used, visit the HealthCorrelator for Excel site  and check under the sample datasets area. As always, I thank Dr. T. Colin Campbell and his collaborators for making the data publicly available for independent analyses . In my previous post  I mentioned some odd results that led me to additional analyses. Below is a screen snapshot summarizing one such analysis, of the ordered associations between mortality in the 35-69 and 70-79 age ranges and all of the other variables in the dataset. As I said before, this is a subset of the China Study II dataset, which does not include all of the variables for which data was collected. The associations shown below were generated by HealthCorrelator for Excel. The top associations are positive and with mortality in the other range (the “M...

The China Study II: Animal protein, wheat, and mortality … there is something odd here!

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WarpPLS  and HealthCorrelator for Excel  were used in the analyses below. For other China Study analyses, many using WarpPLS and HealthCorrelator for Excel, click here . For the dataset used, visit the HealthCorrelator for Excel site  and check under the sample datasets area. I thank Dr. T. Colin Campbell and his collaborators at the University of Oxford for making the data publicly available for independent analyses . The graph below shows the results of a multivariate linear WarpPLS analysis including the following variables: Wheat (wheat flour consumption in g/d), Aprot (animal protein consumption in g/d), Mor35_69 (number of deaths per 1,000 people in the 35-69 age range), and Mor70_79 (number of deaths per 1,000 people in the 70-79 age range). Just a technical comment here, regarding the possibility of ecological fallacy . I am not going to get into this in any depth now, but let me say that the patterns in the data suggest that, with the possible exception...

The China Study II: Wheat, dietary fat, and mortality

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In this post on the China Study II data we have seen that wheat apparently displaces dietary fat a lot, primarily fat from animal sources. We have also seen in that post that wheat is strongly and positively associated with mortality in both the 35-69 and 70-79 age ranges, whereas dietary fat is strongly and negatively associated with mortality in those ranges. This opens the door for the hypothesis that wheat increased mortality in the China Study II sample mainly by displacing dietary fat, and not necessarily by being a primary cause of health problems. In fact, given the strong displacement effect discussed in the previous post, I thought that this hypothesis was quite compelling. I was partly wrong, as you’ll see below. A counterintuitive hypothesis no doubt, given that wheat is unlikely to have been part of the diet of our Paleolithic ancestors, and thus the modern human digestive tract may be maladapted to it. Moreover, wheat’s main protein (gluten) is implicated in ce...

The China Study II: Wheat flour, rice, and cardiovascular disease

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In my  last post  on the China Study II, I analyzed the effect of total and HDL cholesterol on mortality from all cardiovascular diseases. The main conclusion was that total and HDL cholesterol were protective. Total and HDL cholesterol usually increase with intake of animal foods, and particularly of animal fat. The lowest mortality from all cardiovascular diseases was in the highest total cholesterol range, 172.5 to 180; and the highest mortality in the lowest total cholesterol range, 120 to 127.5. The difference was quite large; the mortality in the lowest range was approximately 3.3 times higher than in the highest. This post focuses on the intake of two main plant foods, namely wheat flour and rice intake, and their relationships with mortality from all cardiovascular diseases. After many exploratory multivariate analyses, wheat flour and rice emerged as the plant foods with the strongest associations with mortality from all cardiovascular diseases. Moreover, wh...