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Showing posts with the label smoking

The 2012 Arch Intern Med red meat-mortality study: The “protective” effect of smoking

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In a previous post ( ) I used WarpPLS ( ) to analyze the model below, using data reported in a recent study looking at the relationship between red meat consumption and mortality. The model below shows the different paths through which smoking influences mortality, highlighted in red. The study was not about smoking, but data was collected on that variable; hence this post. When one builds a model like the one above, and tests it with empirical data, the person does something similar to what a physicist would do. The model is a graphical representation of a complex equation, which embodies the beliefs of the modeler. WarpPLS builds the complex equation automatically for the user, who would otherwise have to write it down using mathematical symbols. The results yielded by the complex equation, partly in the form of coefficients of association for direct relationships (the betas next to the arrows), have a meaning. Some may look odd, and require novel interpretations, much in the same...

The China Study II: How gender takes us to the elusive and deadly factor X

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The graph below shows the mortality in the 35-69 and 70-79 age ranges for men and women for the China Study II dataset. I discussed other results in my two previous posts ( ) ( ), all taking us to this post. The full data for the China Study II study is publicly available ( ). The mortality numbers are actually averages of male and female deaths by 1,000 people in each of several counties, in each of the two age ranges. Men do tend to die earlier than women, but the difference above is too large. Generally speaking, when you look at a set time period that is long enough for a good number of deaths (not to be confused with “a number of good deaths”) to be observed, you tend to see around 5-10 percent more deaths among men than among women. This is when other variables are controlled for, or when men and women do not adopt dramatically different diets and lifestyles. One of many examples is a study in Finland ( ); you have to go beyond the abstract on this one. As you can see from the gr...

Strong causation can exist without any correlation: The strange case of the chain smokers, and a note about diet

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Researchers like to study samples of data and look for associations between variables. Often those associations are represented in the form of correlation coefficients, which go from -1 to 1. Another popular measure of association is the path coefficient, which usually has a narrower range of variation. What many researchers seem to forget is that the associations they find depend heavily on the sample they are looking at, and on the ranges of variation of the variables being analyzed. A forgotten warning: Causation without correlation Often those who conduct multivariate statistical analyses on data are unaware of certain limitations. Many times this is due to lack of familiarity with statistical tests. One warning we do see a lot though is: Correlation does not imply causation. This is, of course, absolutely true. If you take my weight from 1 to 20 years of age, and the price of gasoline in the US during that period, you will find that they are highly correlated. But common sense tel...